Faisal Islam: Triple lock move is significant, but it's a gamble

It was a significant announcement from Prime Minister Andy Burnham on his plans for the triple lock after the general election. It will reverberate well beyond the hall.

For months, I have heard suggestions that Andy Burnham was warm to the idea that the triple lock as we know it had to go.

I had expected him to try to forge a political consensus on this thorny issue at this stage, but he has gone further than that. He has tried to take the sting out of the politics of his decision by tying it to funding a new national social care service.

The government calls it an "adjusted triple lock" as it is keen that pensioners are reassured. It is more like a double lock plus. The sensitivity over this political gamble is clear.

Under Burnham's plans, the state pension will go up by either the pace of price rises or 2.5%, whichever is higher. So, it will still keep up with inflation and go up every year.

The link to rises in yearly average earnings, which is the factor currently setting the rise under the triple lock, will be gone on an annual basis and instead be reflected over time.

The policy would be to maintain the state pension as a share of earnings at the record level it is due to reach in 2030.

This change is sharper than expected. Not a review or a consultation. Ministers and MPs will have to back the plans in interviews and, at some point, MPs will have to vote on changing the historic annual earnings link to the state pension.