How renewed fighting in Tigray could spread across the Horn of Africa

Fighting has erupted again in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region. Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive on September 23 , with fighting also reported in the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara.

The escalation threatens the fragile peace established by the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended the previous Tigray war between Ethiopia's federal government in Addis Ababa and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) .

But the central question is bigger than the return of war to Tigray: could the conflict connect with the wars and rivalries already destabilizing the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea?

Martin Plaut, a British journalist and Horn of Africa expert, argues the conflict could spread beyond Ethiopia's borders.

"If a conflict were to spill over, it is quite possible that a conflict involving Eritrea and Ethiopia could then involve Sudanese forces as well, which could drag the whole region into a war," he told DW in an exclusive interview.

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Jalale Getachew Birru, a senior analyst for East Africa at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), also stressed that the conflict cannot be viewed in isolation. ACLED is an independent conflict-monitoring and research organization that collects and analyzes data on political violence and armed conflict around the world.

“The Ethiopia[n] case is not [an] isolated case for the Horn of Africa. It involves the neighboring countries as well, and it's being displayed across the Horn of Africa countries," Birru told DW.